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Here are The Secret Tipster’s weekend Bundesliga predictions, brought to you exclusively by EagleBet.
Betting Against Bayern: “Have I Gone Mad?”
In almost all betting there is a factor called ‘recency bias’ which means bettors only look at the last game (or possibly if they are a bit more sophisticated, the last three games) to see how well a team has been doing.
A team wins 3-0 against strong opposition and everyone thinks they will win the league. A top rated team loses 1-0 against a side that is expected to be relegated and everyone thinks they are hopeless and the manager should be sacked.
But a team is rarely as good or as bad as their last result.
In Singapore there is an expression about football betting which says ‘the ball is round’ which means that unexpected things can happen and that sometimes everything will go right (or wrong) for a team and that the scoreline does not always reflect the balance of play.
Good bettors try to avoid recency bias and look at the big picture of how the team is playing, not what the results look like.
With this in mind, I am keen to oppose Bayern Munich this Friday night on their visit to Greuther Furth. Am I mad?
I hope not. Bayern are top of the Bundesliga and Furth are bottom, with one point from five games. Bayern came into this game after destroying Bochum 7-0 last week and I think the betting markets have overreacted to that score.
Look at the Asian Handicap
So my tip to you is look at the Asian Handicap for this Bundesliga match.
On the Asian handicap betting market you can bet Furth +3 goals at 1.81, which means that if they lose by three goals you get your money back and if they lose by four goals or more then you lose: any other result then you win.
Bear in mind that last season over the course of 34 matches, Bayern only won by three or more goals in nine matches and by four or more goals in six matches. More importantly, they only won away from home by more than four goals on one occasion, against a Schalke 04 side who were in serious turmoil.
For a side like Furth, the visit of Bayern Munich is probably the most important game of the season and with it being on national television on a Friday night, the focus will be even higher. This is a game where all the fans will be even more passionate than usual.
Study the xG: Furth are not Terrible After all
By contrast, Bayern will be more focussed on their Champions League game against Dynamo Kiev next Wednesday night and I suspect will not really care about the score too much as long as they get three points.
Despite the lack of points this season, Furth are not terrible and their xG rating suggests they should have 4.86 points from five games, rather than the one they have achieved. This is my best bet of the weekend.
The Secret Tipster’s Top Weekend Tip: Greuther Furth +3 goals on Asian handicap at 1.58 with Neo.bet
How About A Wolfsburg Prediction?
I was looking for a way to oppose Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga this weekend because they have a tricky home fixture in the Champions League on Wednesday against Sevilla and I think they may have one eye on that rather than a full focus on their game away to Hoffenheim.
However, the home side have not been playing that well recently and best odds of 2.90 don’t make much appeal. Both sides have, however, been pretty tight in defence this season and Hoffenheim have struggled to score, failing to hit the net in their last two games (recency bias alert!).
But half of their eight goals all season came in one match against Augsburg. My model has the under 2.5 goals in this game at a shade of odds-on but you can get 2.3 with Neo.bet and that looks very fair to me.
Second best bet: Under 2.5 goals in Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg at 2.48 with Neo.bet
Is it Worth Betting Against Eintracht Frankfurt?
I had also hoped to bet against Eintracht Frankfurt as they travel to Antwerp in the Europa Cup on Thursday and again may be distracted.
They play a Koln side that is outperforming most people’s expectations so far this season but that is reflected in the odds on this game, which are in line with what my model makes them. The value on the model suggests the draw at 3.90 is a little bit too big but there is not enough value in it for me to make this a third bet of the weekend.
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