While the Premier League Golden Boot is quite open, the bookmakers think the race to finish highest scorer in the Bundesliga this season is between two great strikers: Robert Lewandowski and Erling Haaland. But is it that simple in the Bundesliga 2021/2? As well as the Bayern Munich legend and the rising star from Borussia Dortmund, the stats show the likes of Patrik Schick, André Silva, Taiwo Awoniyi and even young Florian Wirz should not be ignored. Finishing Bundesliga top scorer is an achievement that has been recognised since 1966 in Germany, with the award of a trophy by Kicker magazine that looks like an artillery gun, formally named the “Kicker-Torjägerkanone” (“kicker top scorer cannon”). There is good value in the Bundesliga Golden Boot market provided you read the analysis here at EagleBet, followed by all our Bundesliga top scorer odds, predictions and tips.
Bundesliga Golden Boot: Top 20 Goal scorers 2021/2
|Name||Goals||Assists||Played||Goals per 90||Mins per Goal||Total Shots||Goal Conversion||Shot Accuracy|
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Union Berlin
|Florian Wirtz |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
|Jacob Bruun Larsen|
|Marc Oliver Kempf|
1. FC Köln
VfL Bochum 1848
Bundesliga Top Scorer Contest – The Players and Statistics to Ignore
Actually we cheated slightly as we analysed the 22 leading scorers after matchday 7 in the Bundesliga, as there has been betting interest in André Silva (second top scorer in the Bundesliga last season on 28 goals) and of course the great Thomas Muller.
Please see our Premier League betting guide for the Golden Boot which has already explained in detail the factors to consider when betting on who will finish top scorer in a division (in this case the Bundesliga).
In summary the advice is: ignore a player who is enjoying an early season “blip” and go for centre forwards (ignore midfielders and wingers) with a history of being among the top scorers. Favour successful clubs as their strikers dominate the Golden Boot as they get way more chances (a player from Bayern Munich alone has scored the most goals in the Bundesliga over 19 seasons since 1963/4). Consider if they will play every game (injury record, guaranteed starting place, whether an African Cup of Nations player).
Another factor that is unique to the Bundesliga Golden Boot race is the transfer window in January. While in the Premier League the leading contenders to score the most league goals are fairly settled at their club (Kane apart) there is at least some chance that Lewandowski or Haaland could be targeted in January by a big club elsewhere in Europe. That would make it impossible to end up the highest Bundesliga scorer in the 2021/2 season. However, while anything could happen next summer, as things stand both players should remain in Germany for the full season.
Golden Boot Favourites and Odds to finish Bundesliga Top Scorer 2021/21
It will surprise no one that Lewandowski is the favourite yet again to win the Bundesliga Golden Boot, but don’t bet until you read this article in full.
He has been Bundesliga top goal scorer for the last four seasons, and had won the Golden Boot for two previous seasons.
Alarmingly for the competition, last season was the highest ever Bundesliga goals total (41), suggesting he is getting better rather than worse at the age of 33, beating Gerd Muller’s 1971-2 record of 40 goals.
If Lewandowski wins the Golden Boot this year he will equal Muller’s record of being Bundesliga top scorer in seven seasons.
Last season he was hugely better than everyone else by just about every metric.
He scored 13 goals more than Silva and 14 more than Haaland who was third highest scorer.
His xG was 32 (Silva’s was 26, Haaland’s 22).
Incredibly his xG was over 1 a match (1.17).
Lewandowski took 137 shots (Silva 117, Haaland 93).
Of these, 65 were on target (so almost half) against 60 for Silva and 50 for Haaland.
Incredibly, he was taking over 5 shots a match (5.03) against 3.83 for Silva and 3.5 for Haaland.
Given all this, it led Lewandowski to deliver 2.38 accurate strikes on goal per match against 1.96 for Silva and 1.86 for Haaland.
The amazing thing is that both Silva’s and Haaland’s rates were incredible, but Lewandowski made them look almost average.
However, that was last season and there is no doubt Haaland is improving very fast. Remember the Terminator is only 21, so he is still improving massively season on season.
One of the world’s best defenders, Liverpool’s Virgil Van Dijk, was asked recently about the best strikers he had ever faced. After saying Messi was the best, he then said: “Haaland is also a special striker: he’s strong, he’s quick and he’s got all the attributes to make a defender’s life very, very difficult.
“The first time [playing against him] was when he came on at Anfield and scored for Salzburg. He was very quick, aggressive, very direct.
“It’s a bit like how Jamie Vardy plays, but Haaland is maybe a little bit stronger than Vardy.”
Haaland seeks to become the first Dortmund Golden Boot winner or Kicker-Torjägerkanone since Aubameyang in 2016/7 – oh, and Lewandowski in 20213/4!
So far he has scored 7 goals in 5 matches. Crucially, his shots per match are now even higher than Lewandowski’s last season at 5.20. He has hit 26 shots with 50% accuracy.
Lewandowski has played twice more this season in the Bundesliga in his campaign to win the Golden Boot (as well as, of course, the Bundesliga). He has enjoyed even more shots (32) with 17 being on target.
Given that the Bayern Munich star has started more games you need to be careful in assessing their performance.
And here’s the killer fact: Lewandowski is scoring a goal ever 90 minutes this season, while Haaland is scoring a goal every 60 minutes. Incredible!
The only striker who is scorng anything like as regularly is Wirtz, who surely will win the Golden Boot at some stage. But exciting though he is, we suspect he is too young to do it this season.
As such Haaland is now clearly more potent in front of goal. Plus he has shown this is no fluke by establishing himself as one of the world’s top strikers already.
And he will only get better.
The big caveat here is that the season is still young, and never write off Lewandowski.
We can’t really compare Silva’s rate as he hasn’t started as many games – though that lack of games could itself be crucial.
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Typical Odds on Top 10 Bundesliga Golden Boot “Kicker” Winner
- Lewandowski: 1.5
- Haaland: 2.5
- Silva: 51
- Schick: 67
- Plea: 101
- Weghorst: 101
- Stindl: 101
- Kramaric: 101
- Gnarby: 101
- Muller: 150
EagleBet Bundesliga Golden Boot Prediction for top scorer: Haaland
EagleBet tip: We don’t dismiss Lewandowski’s chances of winning the Golden Boot yet again to equal the Bundesliga record for most goals scored in a season. But given that Haaland is scoring goals more regularly than Lewandowski so far this season, the young Norwegian looks so much better value. His strength verses Lewandowski’s age – increasing Haaland’s chances of completing the season without major injury – also tips the balance in favour of Haaland for us.
If you enjoyed reading this article you should check Premier League Top Scorer Predictions
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