Salah? Ronaldo? Kane? Mané? Fernandez? Or could the Golden Boot be won by a player from one of the (relatively) smaller clubs, a Vardy, Antonio or Maupay, to finish as the Premier League’s top goal scorer this season? With almost a fifth of the season gone you as the bettor now have a lot of statistical evidence to place an informed bet on who will be the top scorer in the Premier League 2021/2. After seven EPL games Liverpool maestro Salah is joint top scorer in the Premiership so far this season, an honour he shares with Leicester’s Jamie Vardy. Salah is averaging a goal every 105 minutes, but Ronaldo is actually scoring every 101 minutes as he has played less games in the Premier League this season. But what of the strikers for title-favourites Chelsea and Manchester City to win the Golden Boot? There is some great value in this market as long as you study the key stats here on EagleBet, followed by all our Premier League top scorer odds, predictions, tips and analysis.
Premier League Golden Boot Stats – Top 20 Goal Scorers 2021/22
| Name | Goals | Assists | Played | Goals per 90 | Mins per Goal | Total Shots | Goal Conversion | Shot Accuracy |
| Mohamed Salah Liverpool | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0.86 | 105 | 22 | 27% | 73% |
| Jamie Vardy Leicester City | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0.87 | 104 | 17 | 35% | 59% |
| Michail Antonio West Ham United | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.84 | 107 | 18 | 28% | 61% |
| Bruno Fernandes Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.58 | 156 | 16 | 25% | 44% |
| Neal Maupay Brighton and Hove Albion | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0.62 | 146 | 13 | 31% | 38% |
| Sadio Mané Liverpool | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0.57 | 158 | 15 | 27% | 60% |
| Ismaila Sarr Watford | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0.57 | 158 | 16 | 25% | 69% |
| Andros Townsend Everton | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 174 | 11 | 27% | 73% |
| Saïd Benrahma West Ham United | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.45 | 199 | 13 | 23% | 62% |
| Son Heung-Min Tottenham Hotspurs | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0.52 | 173 | 14 | 21% | 57% |
| Demarai Gray Everton | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0.45 | 199 | 7 | 43% | 57% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Everton | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.09 | 83 | 11 | 27% | 64% |
| Hwang Hee-Chan Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.08 | 83 | 3 | 100% | 100% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo Manchester United | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.89 | 101 | 12 | 25% | 58% |
| Diogo Jota Liverpool | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.53 | 168 | 13 | 23% | 62% |
| Romelu Lukaku Chelsea | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0.50 | 180 | 10 | 30% | 60% |
| Raphinha Leeds United | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.46 | 195 | 17 | 18% | 41% |
| Mason Greenwood Manchester United | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.44 | 202 | 19 | 16% | 53% |
| Gabriel Jesus Manchester City | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.36 | 251 | 9 | 22% | 56% |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.29 | 315 | 7 | 29% | 71% |
Players And Statistics To Ignore While Betting On The Golden Boot 2021/22
Let us start in this Golden Boot Betting Guide by helping you work out who NOT to bet on for top scorer 2021/2 in the Premiership, and why, based on the Golden Boot statistics so far.
1 – English Premier League Just Started
When trying to work out who will end up Premier League top scorer this season, remember some of the statistics being posted by some players are simply not sustainable in the race for the Golden Boot. Hwang Hee-Chan currently enjoys 100% shot accuracy and 100% conversion rate. I don’t think I am revealing any secrets when I say he will not maintain that record. Indeed, he has been great so far this season for Wolves, but that is after just four games. Only a brave bettor would bet on Hee-Chan claiming the Golden Boot to be Premier League top scorer 2021/2 on the evidence so far.
2-The Top Scorer Is Rarely Out Of The Top 3 Teams In The EPL Table
Look at the team they play for before you place your Golden Boot bet. Generally speaking, to end up the Premier League’s leading goal scorer over an entire season you tend to need to play for a club that finishes near the top of the table. Neal Maupay has had an excellent start to the season with Brighton but that is partly because Brighton have had an incredibly easy start. His stats will look a lot less impressive after facing the division’s top defences and he will not win the Golden Boot. Strikers for top clubs get far more chances than those for struggling clubs, which is why they tend to win the Premier League’s Golden Boot.
3 – Injured Players Don’t Score Goals
Consider whether your choice for the Golden Boot will play almost every game to finish Premier League top scorer. Vardy is currently joint top scorer but aged 34 he has an increased chance of injury and might need resting. Injury records are crucial. Ronaldo is 36 but doctors say he has the body of a 30-year-old and is rarely injured. Equally important is how certain they are to be picked. Mason Greenwood is an exciting talent, but will he get selected enough to finish Premier League top goal scorer this season? The bookies think his teammate Ronaldo has more chance of winning the Golden Boot in part because he will be first choice.
4 – What About The Player’s Motivation ?
Weigh up whether that player currently “clicks” with his club. Harry Kane, winner of last season’s Golden Boot, is one of the Premier League’s most valuable strikers with a great scoring record but he appears unhappy at Spurs and has started slowly. But of course he could be transferred to Manchester City in January and have a blistering second half to the season.
5 – Does The Team Have a Lot of Goal Scorers ?
Think about a club’s style of play. Manchester City don’t setup with one recognised star centre forward (after they failed to land Kane) so their goals tend to be spread through the team. As such, slightly contradicting our second point, the Premier League’s top scorer 2021/2 is unlikely to come from City this year. Conversely, West Ham are set up to create goals for Antonio who should “hog” a lot of the Hammers’ goals and so his Golden Boost chances are boosted.
6 – Look at The Players Record And Don’t Expect Van Dijk To Win The EPL Golden Boot
Consider a player’s goal scoring record and be aware what position the player is being put in this season. With a few exceptions like Frank Lampard, not many leading Premier League goal scorers play anywhere but up front, fairly centrally. New players can burst onto the EPL 2021 goal scoring table, but Andros Townsend is a very experienced player with no history of troubling the top end of the Premier League scoring charts. He is a winger, not a centre forward. He looks like one of the buys of the season at Everton given he cost next to nothing but he won’t end up the Premier League top scorer and the Golden Boot will not grace his mantelpiece.
7 – African Nations Cup Players Playing in The Premier League
Remember this year we have African Cup of Nations which means players such as Salah (Egypt) and Mane could miss will miss just under a month of games in January and February.
8 – The Greatest Premier League Scorers
Beware flair players. The great Premiership goal scorers tend to be quite boring (think Alan Shearer). What they do is score goals.
9 – Champions League Goals Will Not Make You Win The EPL Golden Boot
Playing less games is an advantage but given that all the serious contenders are regular internationals (Vardy possibly excluded) all will face lots of international duty. All serious contenders for the Golden Boot are also tied up in Champions League action, again except Vardy – but he is involved in the Europa League. Only Premier League goals count towards the EPL Golden Boot award.
English Premiership Golden Boot Favourites Odds
Kane won the Premier League Golden Boot last season with 23 goals.
In 2019/20 it was Leicester’s Vardy, again with 23 goals.
In 2018/19 the Golden Boot was won by Liverpool’s Mane with 22 goals.
With thanks to ZodiacBet for sponsoring EagleBet’s Betting Guides.
Odds below of the top 20 favourites to end the top scorer in the Premiership and win the Golden Boot are approximate:
| Salah: 3.75 | Fernandes: 34 |
| Lukaku: 3.75 | Torres: 41 |
| Ronaldo: 3.75 | Jesus: 51 |
| Kane: 17 | Greenwood: 51 |
| Vardy: 17 | Toney: 51 |
| Mane: 26 | Gray: 61 |
| Antonio: 26 | Ings: 67 |
| Calvert-Lewin: 34 | Sterling: 67 |
| Son: 34 | Edouard: 67 |
| Aubameyang: 34 | Sarr: 101 |
Salah, Lukaku And Ronaldo ? Top 3 Scorers of EPL 2021/22 ?
These star strikers from Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United are way ahead of the others to finish top scorer this season in the Premier League and win the Golden Boot – no coincidence as all three clubs are likely to finish in the EPL top four. We discussed above why Manchester City’s strikers are outsiders in the Golden Boot race.
Salah Odds on Winning the English Premier League Golden Boot
So what of Salah’s chances? He has hit more shots than anyone in the Premier League this season and these have been frighteningly accurate. This has resulted in a decent conversion rate.
What of his past record? When he scored 50 goals in 65 games he became the fastest player in Liverpool history to reach the half century. On 31 January 2021, Salah became the fifth Liverpool player to score more than 20 goals in all competitions in four consecutive seasons, showing his amazing consistency. He reached 100 Premier League goals in fewer games(151) than any Liverpool player in history.
So he can score the goals.
However, it is his absence in Africa that makes us just hold back slightly from betting on Salah to win the Premier League’s Golden Boot this year. In fairness though this will probably only see him miss three games.
Can Lukaku Be The Premier League Top Scorer ?
How about Lukaku to finish Premier League top scorer? His conversion rate is not that great this season (23%) although he is accurate (60%). Lukaku’s xG is 3.64 suggesting he might be underperforming. He is being a bit predictable, allowing teams to defend against his favoured left foot, forcing him onto the right.
Only a fool would write off his chances of claiming the Golden Boot, but we are not quite convinced yet he has hit top form. He has just gone public to insist he is more than a target man – strikers often say this when they aren’t scoring enough. But to win the Golden Boot, it is all about goals, goals, goals.
Odds On Ronaldo Winning The EPL Golden Boot 2021/22
Which leaves Ronaldo for the Golden Boot. Interestingly he and Lukaku were playing in Serie A last season. Ronaldo won the Top Scorer (29 goals) ahead of second placed Lukaku (24 goals).
That is telling. Ronaldo has done it all before. The question about Ronaldo is whether he substantially improves a team or makes it all about him. But to win the Golden Boot it is all about the star player. And that player could well be Ronaldo.
EagleBet Premier League Golden Boot Prediction for top scorer: Ronaldo
EagleBet tip: If he wasn’t going to Africa we would certainly bet on Salah to finish the Premier League top scorer but with that in mind we think it is very close and Ronaldo might just edge it. However, a bet on either of these two is a very strong bet. If you are looking for an outside bet for the Golden Boot, past winner Mane is insanely long odds to finish Premier League top scorer.
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