With a break in the Bundesliga due to World Cup Qualifiers, EagleBet is producing more of its popular betting guides, giving punters winning strategies to beat the bookies by betting more intelligently. As regular readers know, the under/ over 2.5 goals market appears regularly in our predictions and Bundesliga betting tips as part of our Bundesliga and Premier League betting guides. But what is the real chance of a Bundesliga game ending with more or less than 2.5 goals? EagleBet investigates.
Which Team’s Most Likely Over 2.5 Goals?
General rule: very good and very bad teams see a lot of over 2.5 goals a game: good ones because they are scoring, bad ones conceding.
But it’s not always so simple: some teams are great at grinding out narrow wins (Arsenal fans would chant “one nil to the Arsenal” – in earlier times, they knew once they were ahead they were hard to catch). Other teams are fantastic charging forward so score regularly, but let in plenty.
These extremes are the teams to watch if betting on the over/ under 2.5 goals market.
Inevitably, Bayern Munich are the Bundesliga team to feature in most over 2.5 goals games in the 2021/2 Bundesliga season so far, with Dortmund next. Of Bayern Munich’s 11 Bundesliga games, 10 (91%) have seen over 2.5 goals. Most of those are due to Bayern goals – important to remember as bookies will offer odds on a specific team to score over x number of goals.
As well as helping your betting, our table might help your viewing: Wolfsburg haven’t been much fun to watch this season – though of interest to bet under 2.5 goals – but the neutral watching Greuther Furth will have got their money’s worth in goals!
The average number of Bundesliga game seeing over 2.5 goals is 57 per cent.
Over/ Under 2.5 Bundesliga Table After 11 Games
|Team||Matches Over 2.5||Goals For||Goals Against||Percentage of Matches|
Over 2.5 goals
|Next Match||Over 2.5|
|Bayern Munich||10||40||11||91||Augsburg v Bayern||1.25||4.00||over|
|Borussia Dortmund||9||28||17||82||Dortmund v Stuttgart||1.44||2.75||over|
|Hoffenheim||7||19||17||64||Hoffenheim v Leipzig||1.53||2.50||under|
|Bayer Leverkusen||7||24||17||64||Leverkusen v Bochum||1.53||2.50||over|
|Union Berlin||6||17||17||55||Union Berlin v Hertha||1.90||1.90||over|
|Mainz||5||15||11||45||Mainz v Koln||1.72||2.10||over|
Top over/ under 2.5 goals: Bundesliga Tips and Predictions
Thanks to our stats, you know that you should – other things being equal – bet on over 2.5 goals rather than under, given that this is how 57 per cent of Bundeslgia matches end.
Only 43 per cent of Bundesliga matches finish with under 2.5 goals.
Therefore you need good reason to bet on the under market.
Take the Berlin derby. Hertha are involved in an average of 3.3 Bundesliga goals a game.
Union Berlin are involved in 3.1 goals a game in the Bundesliga. So over 2.5 goals seems likely, and a decent bet at Bundesliga odds of 1.9.
Or Koln. It averages 3.4 goals a game in the Bundesliga. It is up against Bochum who average a more modest goal involvement of 28.
But those 28 goals over 11 Bundesliga games still works out at 2.55 goals a game, so over the 2.5 goals threshold.
So we want to match up teams that both ideally score and concede a lot and the bookies haven’t noticed. Unlikely, huh?
Well the bookies are surprisingly unscientific in the Bundesliga over/ under 2.5 goals market, giving value bets to you the punter.
Especially when you factor in a team’s likelihood to score away or at home.
This week we see a difficult set of match ups with high-scoring v low-scoring teams. If you have two high or two low scoring teams, betting on the over/ under goal market becomes much easier.
Hoffenheim v Leipzig
The one match we see this week as potentially worth betting on the “unders” market is this.
Leipzig score for fun at home but fire blanks away. But interestingly they don’t concede many Bundesliga goals away either (in the Champions League they are completely different).
Leipzig have only scored three times away all season in the Bundesliga but have also conceded only six away. So a good bet for an under 2.5 goals a game match in the Bundesliga when they are playing away.
We want to bet Leipzig under 2.5 goals, but how about Hoffenheim?
As you see from our table, they have been involved in an above average number of over 2.5 goals a game in the Bundesliga (3.3).
Well over 2.5 goals. Their home matches have gone: 2-0 5-0 3-1 0-2 2-2
So it is Hoffenheim expansiveness v Leipzig tightness.
As such we are not saying this Bundesliga clash definitely will end in under 2.5 goals, but the odds of 2.5 on there being under 2.5 in this match suggest the bookies haven’t factored in how tight Leipzig are away. Perhaps a small bet on under 2.5 Bundesliga goals or save this fact about Leipzig until they next play away.
Generally though, bet over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga and you will win more than you lose.