By the Secret Tipster
At the halfway point of the Bundesliga the top of the table has a familiar look with Bayern Munich clear of Borussia Dortmund by a whopping nine points. Unsurprisingly Bayern are 1.04 favorites to win the title with Betfair, which is probably actually a decent bit of value if you like very short priced bets – there is a reason Bayern predictions are always for a win in Bundesliga betting guides.
In the betting without Bayern Munich market Dortmund are a top price of 1.25, which again is probably not too bad a price given that it seems unlikely that either Freiburg or Bayer Leverkusen can keep up the same sort of pace, which again has been reflected in Eagle’s regular Bundesliga betting guides and match day predictions.
xG – Expected Goals in the Bundesliga
It is useful at this stage to look at which teams have been overperforming and which have been underperforming, which is in my view best expressed in terms of expected goals (xG) which indicates how many goals you would expect a team to have scored from the chances created.
This gives us a view on how many points they should have scored. It is not a perfect measure of team performance but it throws up some interesting information that can help us make better Bundesliga bets, and informs all the Bundesliga betting guides you find on EagleBet. With a sample size of 17 games, there is enough data available to give a significant indicator of teams’ good or bad luck.
Bundesliga Luck: Eintracht Frankfurt
The luckiest side in the Bundesliga so far this season are Eintracht Frankfurt, who have an expected Bundesliga points total of 19.95, which is 7.05 points fewer than their actual total of 27 points. Dortmund are second luckiest (4.35), followed by Arminia Bielefeld (3.67). Then comes Bayer Leverkusen (3.29), Hoffenheim (2.48) and Freiburg (2.16).
The least lucky sides in the Bundesliga are bottom of the table Greuther Fuerth, who have 7.27 fewer points than would be expected from their xG. Leipzig have 6.98 fewer points than would be expected and then comes Borussia Mönchengladbach (5.98) and Mainz (4.13).
Poor Fuerth!
Fuerth would still be bottom of the table on xG but only by a tiny amount (0.06 of a point) and if their luck evens out then it could be that they don’t finish bottom at the end of the season. Worth thinking about when reading Bundesliga betting guides. It’s a shame there isn’t a proper betting market on who would finish bottom, as I reckon you would probably be able to get odds of 26.00 about Arminia Bielefeld finishing last, which would be a little bit of value.
So, in the next few weeks, I will be looking out for match ups in my Bundesliga betting guides where ‘lucky’ teams are seeing the ‘unlucky’ ones and, in theory at least, will be backing the ‘unlucky’ ones if the market has priced the teams purely on the basis of the current Bundesliga table.
Unfortunately with the large number of Covid cases around at the moment there are Bundesliga squads who are very short of players and this is far more of a factor in assessing teams’ likely chances than the xG. The next few weeks (and probably months) will all be about checking medical reports from clubs and working out how many fit players there are and what sort of formation they will play.
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